The World at the Cup
Clash of the Civilizations
Six confederations, one trophy. How every region of the world is faring — combined results, who's still standing, the model's read on each continent's title hopes, and the head-to-head record when civilizations collide.
Which continent is winning the World Cup?
Combined championship probability by region · Monte Carlo, n=8,000
🇪🇺 Europe leads the field, carrying 100% of the tournament’s title probability across 16 teams.
Goals around the world
308 goals · 1.48 per match · scored vs conceded by region
When regions score · share of goals by match minute
Each cell is the share of a region’s goals scored in that 15-minute window — darker means more goals come in that phase. Built from 293 timed goals.
Europe
UEFA · 16 teams · avg ELO 1912
Africa
CAF · 10 teams · avg ELO 1758
South America
CONMEBOL · 6 teams · avg ELO 1940
N. & C. America
CONCACAF · 6 teams · avg ELO 1751
Asia
AFC · 9 teams · avg ELO 1743
Oceania
OFC · 1 teams · avg ELO 1620
The Clash
Head-to-head record when regions collide · row beats column
| Region | 🇪🇺 | 🌎 | 🌍 | 🌏 | 🗺️ | 🌊 | vs world |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺Europe | — | 5-1-7 | 11-6-2 | 6-4-2 | 8-1-2 | 1-0-0 | 31-12-13 |
| 🌎South America | 7-1-5 | — | 5-2-1 | 3-2-0 | 1-1-2 | · | 16-6-8 |
| 🌍Africa | 2-6-11 | 1-2-5 | — | 5-2-1 | 4-0-2 | 1-0-0 | 13-10-19 |
| 🌏Asia | 2-4-6 | 0-2-3 | 1-2-5 | — | 0-0-3 | 0-1-0 | 3-9-17 |
| 🗺️N. & C. America | 2-1-8 | 2-1-1 | 2-0-4 | 3-0-0 | — | · | 9-2-13 |
| 🌊Oceania | 0-0-1 | · | 0-0-1 | 0-1-0 | · | — | 0-1-2 |
Each cell is the row region’s record against the column region in finished fixtures. Teal = winning record, pink = losing. Intra-region games (same confederation) are excluded.
Statement results across borders
The most emphatic cross-region wins so far